We may have overestimated China's carbon emissions by over 14%, according to a new research analysis.
The research, published Aug. 19 in the journal Nature suggests the country's total carbon emissions from fossil fuels and cement production in 2013 was about 2.49 gigatonnes — 14% less than international groups originally reported. And from 2000-2013, estimates have been off by a total of 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon total.
According to the report, it looks like several international groups have incorrectly overestimated the country's emissions as far back as 1990:
The authors say China's large coal industry is the cause of the huge discrepancy.
The amount of carbon emitted from coal in China is 40% lower than the numbers estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. That's because the country is using a higher-quality type of coal that produces less carbon, a difference previous estimates didn't take into account.
It's great news, but it doesn't change the fact that China is still the largest source of carbon emissions. Over three-quarters of global carbon emission growth between 2010 and 2012 happened in China. In 2013 it emitted 29% of the world's carbon emissions — twice as much as the United States emitted.
So even though the damage is less than we thought, the country can't afford to let up on its aggressive push to cut emissions. Especially since the authors of the report think there's still a degree of uncertainty in the data.
Luckily China had already pledged to stop its carbon emissions from growing by 2030, and to cut its emissions 60-65% from 2005 levels. It'll be easier to meet this goal since the actual amount of emissions are lower than earlier estimates measured. Plus, China's coal use has also already plummeted 8% this year, so it looks like the country is well on its way to reaching their 65% emissions cut goal.
China is also in the middle of big renewable energy push. It wants to make 20% of its primary energy from renewable sources by 2030, which will help them meet the emissions cut goal as well.
"The strong message here is that as we refine our estimates of carbon emissions we get closer to an accurate picture of what is going on and we can improve our climate projections and better inform policy on climate change," Corinne Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, said.
An accurate baseline measurement of emissions will help future climate change negotiations, like the international climate change conference in Paris happening in December.
