GOP front-runner Donald Trump may have played a significant role in breaking recent precedent strongly connected to President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign.
And it could catapult him to victory in Monday's Iowa caucuses.
Between January 4 and February 1, 3,651 Iowans registered as Republicans ahead of the caucuses, according to data released Monday by the Iowa secretary of state's office.
That beat the previous high-water mark of new-voter registration between the same period during the past three election cycles, which came during then-Sen. Barack Obama's 2008 campaign. That year, 3,262 voters registered as Democrats over the same timeframe.
The big increase in voter registration was correlated with a massive upswing in Democratic caucus-goers turning out. That year, 239,872 — more than 39% of all registered Democrats in the state — showed up to caucus, according to the Iowa Caucus Project. In comparison, just 124,331 registered Democrats showed up for the 2004 caucuses — a total slightly greater than 23% of all registered Democrats at that time.
Registered Republican voters turned out in near identical numbers in both 2008 and 2012, with 119,200 casting votes during the former and 121,503 caucusing in the latter year. The turnout rate hovered around 20% each year.
Politico wrote Monday that if voter turnout exceeds 140,000 on the Republican side, Trump is pretty much a lock to win. A prominent supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told the publication he feels that level is a good one at which to assess predictions.
"If that number goes well above that, Donald Trump has a shot," Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) said. If that number is that or below that, Ted Cruz is in control.”
The latest RealClearPolitics average of the polls shows that Trump has a nearly 5-point lead over Cruz in Iowa.
Democratic presidential candidate and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) could also see a significant boost on the Democratic side. Between January 4 and February 1, according to the Iowa secretary of state's office, 2,724 voters registered as Democrats in Iowa. Sanders trails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 4 points in the latest RealClearPolitics Iowa average.
During the past four days, roughly the same amount of voters have registered on both sides — just more than 620 Democrats and nearly 700 on the Republican side. These numbers will increase leading up to the caucuses Monday night, as Iowans can register or change parties at their caucus stations.
Speaking about Trump's and Sanders' voting blocks, Ralph Reed, chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, told The Des Moines Register: “I think they’re coming."
