Every deal has a winner, and Microsoft is going to be the winner in its recent deal with Nokia.
So says research firm Gartner, predicting that Microsoft will rise to number-two in the smartphone market by 2015, putting it ahead of Apple's iOS. Gartner is even more bullish on Windows Phone than IDG, which drew a similar conclusion earlier this month.
The firm says that Microsoft will ship about 216 Windows Phone handsets in 2015, giving it 19.5% share of the smartphone market.
That's great news for Microsoft, which is basically nowhere today, but not so great for Nokia -- Symbian currently has 37.6% market share, so swapping out for Windows Phone will lead to a big net loss in market share.
The big winner, according to Gartner: Android, with nearly 50% of the market. Gartner believes Apple's market share will peak this year, then begin to decline as Microsoft and Android take over.
Of course, there's enough growth for everyone -- even RIM, which will increase its shipments nearly 3x in the next four years, while losing market share.
Here's the full chart:
OS | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2015 |
Symbian | 111,577 | 89,930 | 32,666 | 661 |
Market Share (%) | 37.6 | 19.2 | 5.2 | 0.1 |
Android | 67,225 | 179,873 | 310,088 | 539,318 |
Market Share (%) | 22.7 | 38.5 | 49.2 | 48.8 |
Research In Motion | 47,452 | 62,600 | 79,335 | 122,864 |
Market Share (%) | 16.0 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 11.1 |
iOS | 46,598 | 90,560 | 118,848 | 189,924 |
Market Share (%) | 15.7 | 19.4 | 18.9 | 17.2 |
Microsoft | 12,378 | 26,346 | 68,156 | 215,998 |
Market Share (%) | 4.2 | 5.6 | 10.8 | 19.5 |
Other Operating Systems | 11,417.4 | 18,392.3 | 21,383.7 | 36,133.9 |
Market Share (%) | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
Total Market | 296,647 | 467,701 | 630,476 | 1,104,898 |
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