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13 Countries That Are Going To Grow Like Crazy For Decades
and China are both battling rampant inflation. Their central banks have taken aggressive tightening measures to curb rising costs The result has been downward revisions to their GDP growth.
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With GDP growth slowing, stocks in these countries may no longer seem so appealing, but Citi has a solution.
A new report from the bank identifies the countries expected to drive global growth between now and 2050. And while China, India, and Brazil all make the cut, we've focused on those growth alternatives you may want to focus on beyond the BRICs.
We've highlighted the next 13 non-BRIC countries driving global growth, with details on each country's GDP growth rate, demographics, and key socio-economic risks to investors.
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 6.9%
Risks: Nigeria may be rich in natural resources but it also lacks political stability. At least 500 people were killed during religious riots that followed the presidential election in April.
Pros: But the country is rich in renewable and non-renewable resources and is expected to have the highest average per capita growth of all 3G countries. The private sector, especially financials and airline sectors, have seen increased investment.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 3%
Risks: In the short-term Mexico faces downside risks from the U.S. economy, fuel costs and a reversal of capital flows. In addition to that, the country is struggling with its war against drugs and violence has been escalating.
Pros: Its population of 113.7 million is large and growing. Amongst Latin American countries, Mexico has favorable policies to allow easy lending which should boost business growth.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 4.4%
Risks: The country is heavily dependent on oil imports and conflict in the Mideast and North Africa could weigh on the economy. Thailand's population will only show marginal growth to 74 million in 2050. Thailand's violent border conflict with Cambodia is ongoing.
Pros: Thailand's export driven economy is in good shape.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 5.5%
Risks: Sri Lanka will see its population peak at 22.2 million in 2035, and then fall to 21.7 million in 2050. It also needs post-conflict resolution to avoid political instability in the long run.
Pros: Sri Lanka has emerged from civil conflict with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) and is on its way to a stable economy.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 5%
Risks: Egypt needs to liberalize its economy and check rampant unemployment and income inequality. The frustration came to a boil with the civil unrest that saw Mubarak ousted, but political instability continues to be a risk despite the new government.
Pros: Egypt benefits from having a large working age population that is expected to grow 60.8% by 2050.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 6.3%
Risks: The country ranks fairly low on health, education, and quality of its institutions and services. It is also in need of better governance.
Pros: Bangladesh is a young country with a huge supply of labor. Unlike China, it has a growing working age population that is expected to increase from 93 million in 2010 to 136 million in 2050.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 4%
Risks: The upcoming presidential election could see Ollanta Humala voted into power. Investors fear he could undo free-market reforms and nationalize key industries despite his promise to hold reforms steady. There is also a risk of strikes by miners and rampant drug violence. Peru's population growth has slowed and will reach about 48 million by 2050.
Pros: Peru is rich in copper and gold and has seen increased foreign direct investment.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 3.8%
Risks: Colombia is also cracking down on drug trafficking in the country, but is still at war with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) known for kidnapping and terrorist acts.
Pros: President Juan Manuel Santos is pushing for policy changes that span from adjusting the management of oil and mining royalties, to overhauling government finances. His war on drugs has also been recognized globally. S&P recently gave the country's debt an upgrade, to investment grade.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 6.1%
Risks: Iraq is still unstable and decades of war have destroyed the country's economy, taking a toll on its population. The country also needs to push education and deregulate its markets.
Pros: Iraq’s working age population is expected to grow 143.4% between 2010 and 2035, and its post-war reconstruction program and oil reserves can boost growth.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 5.5%
Risks: Philippines has consistently ranked high on corruption. Moreover investors are wary of political instability. Recently rebels from its Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) have threatened to abort talks with the government and the conflict has claimed about 150,000 lives since their campaign began in 1978. The country has also been racked with protests calling for wage increases.
Pros: Its population is projected to grow to 146.2 million in 2050, and its working-age population is set to jump 66.2%.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 6.3%
Risks: The Mongolian economy relies on resource extraction and needs to diversify to hedge against political changes, changes in trade patterns, fluctuations in commodity prices, and appreciation of the domestic currency. Its population is also expected to remain relatively small growing to 3.5 million in 2050 from 2.7 million in 2010.
Pros: The country, however, has a high rate of savings and investment. It has vast copper and coal reserves and oil and gas fields.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 5.6%
Risks: Indonesia's poor infrastructure and red tape have kept foreign investment away. The country has also seen a spike in religious terrorism and violence.
Pros: The country is however rich in resources, its private sector is hungry for investment, and between 2010 and 2050, Indonesia's working age population is expected to increase by 17.9%.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
Average growth between 2010 - 2050: 6.4%
Risks: In a push for economic growth, Vietnam is now grappling with double digit inflation. The country's policy making is also notoriously cloudy and its exchange rate management is poor. Also, its working age population is only expected to grow until 2035.
Pros: All things considered its investment rate is relatively high and the country looks to be able to sustain growth.
Growth and population data provided by Citi
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